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Climate fluctuations impact on global food production geometry?

2021-2-22 12:02:21

The IPCC "climate change and land special report pointed out that climate change is already affecting food security, and the influence of the future will be more and more big. Climate fluctuations may have little impact on global food production? Recently, scientists at the university of Columbia and the international food policy research institute in the progress of science "published the article gives the answer. The first study to estimate the different climate variation patterns such as el nino to what extent can affect the global and regional scale grain crops of corn, wheat, and soybean production. The results found that from 1980 to 2010, caused global climate variation of maize yield fluctuation of nearly 18%.


Research indicates that el nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) is responsible for the food at the same time in the large area in recent years failure reason, the discovery and the core of the global agriculture system backbone theory. The theory is that the United States, China and Argentina geographically far-flung crop failure no relation between the grain production.


Researchers believe that the global agriculture system can maintain relative stability, it is possible that an area of low yield was made up for in other parts of the high yield. "Of course, no matter how much probability is small, high yield to compensate for the possibility of low yield is always present." The study lead author weston Anderson said. So far, it has been believed that the cause of the large area crop is a random series of severe weather events.


The study analyzed the ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole climate model's influence on the global level of corn, soybean and wheat production, such as how the climate variation patterns affect the key area of drought and high temperature weather. The results show that the ENSO can and does lead to multiple main breadbasket food production, including major production in 1983. Strong el nino and la Nina event to a certain extent determines which areas will actually suffered from drought and extreme temperatures, for some crops, these climate events force multiple main grain-producing areas production at the same time.